Denial

There has been much discussion regarding whether Iraq is involved in a Civil War at the moment. Typically the arguments for and against come from those with a vested interest in having it so or not. Civil War is commonly defined as a war between factions or regions within the same country. From that definition I do not see how this can be considered anything but. That said, it is mostly an issue of semantics and does not change the reality on the ground. The worrying issue is whether those denying the Civil War actually believe this, or are simply putting on a brave face for their troops and the fledgling government of Iraq. Either way, this story from the BBC confirms that at least one senior ranking official believes it is so, and has a pessimistic outlook for democracy and stability in the region.

Civil war is a more likely outcome in Iraq than democracy, Britain's outgoing ambassador in Baghdad has warned Tony Blair in a confidential memo. William Patey, who left the Iraqi capital last week, also predicted the break-up of Iraq along ethnic lines.

An honest assessment from an outgoing official. The ambassador does still believe:

"What should our response be? However difficult it is, stay the course, stand up for those people who want democracy, stand up for those people who are fighting sectarianism, stand up for a different vision of the Middle East based on democracy, liberty, the rule of law," he told reporters.

It is relieving to see an official with a realistic outlook on the current situation, but still with an optimistic and dedicated view on the future.