A Theory

The largest tragedy of this Middle Eastern Conflict must be the damage the progressive elements of Lebanon have suffered as a result of Hezbollah's actions and Israel's over-reaching response. Lebanon's population was filled with confidence and momentum, far-reaching goals of modernity, tolerance, and substance, and has been caught in the cross-fire of two neighborhood gangs. Although not completely innocent in the affair, the moderating elements of Lebanon's political apparatus had been making much progress in the face of continued sectarianism and political alliances.

In this blog I have been critical of Israel, however, I want to be clear that I do believe that Hezbollah is largely to blame (from a big picture perspective) for the retardation of Lebanon's promising young nation. I will go on to summarize how the "international community," (with all the contempt I have for the term) failed to support the fledgling Lebanese nation, but for now I will focus on Syria & Hezbollah. During the "Cedar Revolution" Hezbollah realized that the momentum was turning against them, that the more fortunate elements of Lebanese society had realized that Syrian dominance (including Hezbollah/Shiite groups) had retarded the nation and its peoples' development. At the same time many of those that had not benefited from reformist Hariri's economic and social liberalisation (particularly in Southern Lebanon) strengthened their bond with Hezbollah whom had provided the social services that had not been forthcoming from Beirut.

As Hezbollah (read Syria) realized it was losing momentum in Lebanon it continued its terror campaign that began with the assassination of Rafik Hariri, intimidating and bombing those whom had been supporting the progressive movement. And so it was Hezbollah that began the campaign against Lebanese reform, unfortunately Israel was so near-sighted in its strategy that it effectively nailed the last nail in the coffin built by Hezbollah that contained the modernizing Lebanese nation. Israel could not have failed to notice the moderating movement inside Lebanese nation, a small portion of which was a result of the misnamed "Bush Doctrine." For once the Bush Administration's rhetoric was matching what had been happening on the ground long before the American government claimed to notice or care. By bringing inclusive politics, combined with a economic and social liberalisation, the Lebanese leadership was creating a strong economy and reduced radical religious based sects; all of which could, and I believe would have, created a peaceful Northern neighbor for Israel and a great example of how inclusion, democracy and liberalisation benefits a nation.

(In this paragraph you can use Hezbollah and Syria interchangeably) I do not believe that Hezbollah alone could have derailed the process, they had been trying, and ultimately, I think it was showing the people of Lebanon that its tactics were the too closely allied with Syria and against greater progress. But Hezbollah's leadership (and those in Syria) have proved to be extremely politically savvy, one possible theory is that Hezbollah, realizing that it was losing the "battle" for Lebanon knew that a large event would be needed to bring the public back into its corner. Hezbollah captured Israeli soldiers in a cross-border attack, knowing full-well that a new (perceived as weak on self-defense) Olmert administration in Israel would over-react, striking seemingly without care for innocent Lebanese life and moving aggressively into Lebanon. The plan worked, and as the Israeli incursion continued, even moderate Lebanese realized that their own government was seemingly powerless to defend its own people, and that the only form of resistance was Hezbollah. The self-defense must have appealed to even the least nationalistic among Lebanese, taking some pride in seeing any type of home-grown resistance to the destruction of its infrastructure and homes. (I believe in the face of the bombings this may have even outweighed any anger the Lebanese may have towards Hezbollah for sparking the conflict to begin with.)

That possibility aside, if the plan had not been preconceived, it could not have worked more perfectly for Hezbollah. They are now commanding unprecedented popularity across the Muslim world from both Shiite and Sunni Muslims alike. Their surprising military defense of Southern Lebanon has emboldened Radical Muslims across the Middle East leading to much broader implications then I believe most people realize. Any blow to Israel (as this is being popularly perceived) is seen as weakness of the United States. At this critical time in Iraq this will surely empower the protagonists of its Civil War and further weaken the chance for the US to achieve any goals in the broader struggle against Islamic extremism in the region. The failure of the Bush Administration/Congress in this was to not back the nascent Lebanese reform movement when it needed the US the most. Following the lofty rhetoric hurled in favor of the "Cedar Revolution" the Lebanese people, like many in the Middle East (Egypt, etc.) have learned that unfortunately in terms of the spreading democracy doctrine, we are simply all talk.